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The yield on a 10-year Treasury reached 5% for 1st time since 2007. Why that matters_我的网站

一 |     NEW YORK -- The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007. That matters for everyone, not just Wall Street. Treasury yields have been climbing rapidly, with the 10-year yield rallying from less than 3.50% during the spring and from just 0.50% early in the pandemic. Monday morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 4.96% after hitting 5.02% earlier. The jump means the U.S. government must pay more to borrow money from investors to cover its spending.It also directly affects people around the world, because the 10-year Treasury yield is the centerpiece of the global financial system and helps set prices for all kinds of other loans and investments. Besides making it more expensive for U.S. homebuyers to buy a house with a mortgage, higher yields also put downward pressure on prices for everything from stocks to cryptocurrencies. Eventually, they could help cause companies to lay off more workers. Higher yields mark a sharp turnaround for a generation of consumers and investors who have known pretty much just low yields, as central banks kept benchmark interest rates pinned at nearly zero. Such low rates let people borrow money more easily, which helped economies to strengthen following the 2008 financial crisis, the European debt crisis and other maladies including, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. The low rates led to rising prices for houses, stocks and other investments, but they may also have encouraged too much risk-taking and spurred investment bubbles.Now, central banks are more concerned with getting high inflation under control. To do that, they raise interest rates and hope the higher costs to borrow will starve inflation of its fuel by bringing down spending. The Fed's main interest rate affects extremely short-term loans, those that banks charge overnight. The Fed has already pulled its federal funds rate to the highest level since 2001, and it's debating whether to hike it one more time. Either way, it's signaled plans to keep rates high for a while to successfully suffocate inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield has been catching up to the Fed's main interest rate after a string of reports has shown the U.S. economy remains remarkably resilient. While that calms worries about a possible recession caused by high rates, it could also keep upward pressure on inflation and shorter-term rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that many other factors could be contributing to the swift rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. They include the U.S. government's big deficits, which require more federal borrowing, and the Fed's ongoing efforts to reduce its trove of bond investments built earlier to keep yields low. On the wonkier side, bond prices have also been falling in tandem with stock prices more often than they used to. That's unnerving for investors who usually see bonds as the safer part of their portfolios, and it could be pushing them to demand higher yields to own them.The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield most directly means the U.S. government has to pay more to borrow money for 10 years. But because the 10-year yield is the reference point for financial markets, it also quickly filters out into all kinds of loans. Even for companies with the best credit ratings, the interest rates they borrow at are set by adding some extra on top of whatever the U.S. government is paying for its Treasurys. Borrowers with worse credit ratings have to pay more extra than those seen as good bets to repay their debts.More expensive borrowing keep U.S. households from spending as much and companies from expanding as much, which should eventually hit overall U.S. economic activity. More immediately, because a 10-year Treasury is seen as one of the safest possible investments on the planet, its yield swiftly sways prices for all kinds of investments. When a super-safe Treasury is paying much more in interest, investors feel less need to pay high prices for a Big Tech stocks, cryptocurrency or other investment that carries more risk. It's a big reason the S&P 500 has seen its gain for the year so far tumble from 19.5% at the end of July to 10% as of Friday. Higher U.S. yields also attract more investments from abroad, which means investors are increasingly swapping their currencies for U.S. dollars. Since the end of July, the U.S. dollar has climbed roughly 4% against the euro, 5% against the British pound and 6% against the Australian dollar. While a stronger dollar helps U.S. tourists buy more stuff when they're abroad, it can also add financial pressure and heighten inflation for other countries, particularly in the developing world. Even for U.S. bond investors, the swift rise in bond yields has brought losses of their own. When new bonds are paying higher yields, it makes the older, lower-yielding bonds already sitting in investors' portfolios or mutual funds less attractive and knocks down their price.The largest U.S. bond mutual fund has lost roughly 3% so far in 2023 and is on track for a third straight yearly loss. That's never happened since its birth in 1987.。    CD Projekt 已确认，巫师4 的目标发售窗口定于 2028 年。这一消息源自 CD Projekt Red 联合首席执行官 Michał Nowakowski 的一段特别视频致辞。

二 | 假设 CD Projekt 能在 2028 年如期推出 巫师4，并且公司坚持其为这一新 The Witcher 三部曲制定的雄心勃勃的发行策略，我们可能会在 2031 年看到 The Witcher 5，并在 2034 年看到 The Witcher 6。Nowakowski 表示，CD Projekt 将在本周的科隆游戏展上展示 巫师 3：狂猎 的扩展包 Songs of the Past，包括“黑暗故事的初探”以及新内容。此外，Nowakowski 确认 巫师4 将不会参加 2026 年科隆游戏展。“我们 CD Projekt Red 总部的团队正在努力开发一个全新的传奇故事，由希里领衔。

三 | 我们有 500 多名极具才华的开发人员致力于为您创造真正特别的作品。巫师4 拥有宏大且身临其境的开放世界、紧张且充满动作感的玩法，以及一个深刻、有影响力的故事，我们希望它能长久地留在您的记忆中。简单来说，这是我们迄今为止最大、最胆大、最雄心勃勃的游戏。”“我知道你们很想知道它什么时候发布。

四 | 这是我们一直听到的问题。虽然我们不会在展会上展示 巫师4，也没有准备好分享确切日期，但我可以告诉你们：巫师4 的目标发布窗口是 2028 年。”“我知道这需要一点等待，你们希望能早点玩到，但请让团队精心打磨。等待将是值得的。

五 | 在那之前，还会有更多 The Witcher 的内容推出，包括 2027 年上线的 Songs of the Past。

六 | 你们可以放心，科隆游戏展也在我们未来几年的计划中。”Songs of the Past 是 CD Projekt 这部奇幻杰作的第三个扩展包，预计在原作发布 12 年后、备受喜爱的第二个扩展包 Blood and Wine 发布 11 年后推出。CD Projekt 正在与 Fool’s Theory 共同开发该扩展包，后者的团队由曾参与 The Witcher 3 开发的“行业老兵”组成。以下是目前已知的信息。Songs of the Past 是 巫师 3：狂猎 的第三个扩展包它将于 2027 年在 PlayStation 5、Xbox Series X|S 和 PC 上发布CD Projekt Red 正在与 Fool’s Theory 共同开发 Songs of the PastSongs of the Past 将在 2027 年发布于 PlayStation 5、Xbox Series X|S 和 PC 时，让玩家重新扮演传奇猎魔人利维亚的杰洛特，开启一段全新的冒险。CD Projekt 暗示 Songs of the Past 将为 巫师4 铺平道路。虽然这讲述的是一个以杰洛特为主角、发生在 The Witcher 3 事件之后的独立故事，但这段新冒险也将充当 巫师4 的某种序幕。在 5 月份面对投资者的讲话中，Nowakowski 被问及该扩展包在系列中的定位、为何在原定今年发布的情况下推迟到 2027 年，以及 CD Projekt 新的 The Witcher 三部曲是否也会像 The Witcher 3 那样获得扩展包。“首先，我们非常想为粉丝提供绝佳的体验，一个非常酷的扩展包，让人们为能回到 The Witcher 3 的设定而感到高兴，”Nowakowski 在谈到制作 Songs of the Past 的初衷时说道。“当然，间接地，是的，它是对粉丝的提醒（关于该系列）。

七 | 在某种程度上，它是一个序幕，尽管它不是字面意义上的 巫师4 序幕。是的，你可以把它看作是维持 The Witcher 3 话题度的一种方式。所有这些都是副作用，额外的副作用。

八 | 对我们来说，核心在于为 The Witcher 的老粉丝提供高质量、有趣的体验。”“我们曾有一段时间计划在今年发布 Songs of the Past，”Nowakowski 在被问及为何推迟发布时表示。

九 | “我们与开发团队共同决定，游戏将在 2027 年发布，说实话，是为了从消费者角度达到最佳效果，坦率地说，这才是最终唯一重要的事情。”在一场面向 The Witcher 粉丝的直播中，CD Projekt 进一步暗示了扩展包的重点，戏称杰洛特新的第三把剑的重要性——这在最近发布的一张庆祝春季节日的美术图中有所体现。杰洛特的吟游诗人好友丹德里恩也出现在图中。“我们现在不会透露太多，因为我们希望你在游玩时去体验它，”高级社区和社交媒体经理 Laura Beitzel 在庆祝 Blood and Wine 十周年的直播中调侃道。

十 | “但正如一些眼尖的人在过去 24 小时内已经看到的那样，在猎魔人传说中一个非常重要的夜晚——贝尔特恩之夜，也就是我们几周前分享的贝尔特恩庆祝活动中，有一些提示在等着你。

十一 | 所以……继续寻找线索吧。”这里，Beitzel 指的是 4 月份在社交媒体上发布的一张美术图和一首诗。

十二 | 图中显示杰洛特在篝火旁休息，丹德里恩弹奏着鲁特琴，村民们在跳舞。更重要的是，图中显示杰洛特带着一把神秘的新剑——这把剑也出现在 Songs of the Past 的揭晓美术图中，带有一个极具特色的装饰性弯曲护手。

十三 | “是的，杰洛特握着一把剑，”CD Projekt 的 Amelia Korzycka 继续说道，她指的是 Songs of the Past 的核心美术图。

十四 | “这对故事来说是一把非常重要的剑，当游戏发布时你就会了解它。在那之前，我们还会通过几次直播来揭晓它。”Beitzel 还讨论了扩展包的规模。“Songs of the Past 的规模将与你们熟悉的 Blood and Wine 保持一致，也符合你们对我们制作扩展包的体验和期待，”Beitzel 解释道。“我们要明确，这是一个扩展包。

十五 | ”我们还确认 Songs of the Past 将包含更多 巫师之昆特牌 卡牌，并且 CD Projekt 仍在为 The Witcher 3 开发跨平台模组支持，计划在未来某个时间点发布。自 5 月份宣布该扩展包以来，CD Projekt 尚未以任何方式展示过 Songs of the Past，因此我预计我们将在 8 月 25 日的开幕之夜直播上看到预告片，并有望看到部分实机演示。The Witcher 3 最近达到了惊人的 6500 万份销量（巧合的是，The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 也在几个月后达到了同样的销量里程碑）。

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